Proposition 2: Real Numbers and a Prediction

Okay, this should be my final post on the Proposition 2: PM2.5 issue. Post before last I mentioned a coal boiler. This boiler is running with more heat output and less fine particles per million BTU of heat then the wood pellet stoves that are still "approved" according to Prop. 2. Here is the test result:

Note the heat output of 273,041.69 BTU’s/hr with Average Emission of 0.035 lb/MMBtu.

Now compare this number to several of the EPA approved wood pellet stoves link here. The top two listings are:

1) Northwest Manufacturing, Inc. Flex-Fuel 30 KW indoor/outdoor Heat Output 110,167 BTU/hr and Average Emission Level 0.04 lbs/million BTU output

2) Central Boiler Maxim M250 Heat Output 212,453 BTU/hr and Average Emission Level 0.06 lbs/million BTU output

The Titan II has better heat output with lower emissions then the EPA list of "Cleaner Hydronic Heaters" using wood pellets. If meeting EPA PM 2.5 requirements really is part of the goal of Prop. 2 why are less efficent wood pellet stoves still approved under this proposition yet coal burners for homes are not. Why are the various coal burning commercial industries accetable and how did the research delineate the difference of PM 2.5 from these commercial sources from individual home devices? Update 9/30/11 Mr. Muir sent a link to video footage of the Titan II.

Information above provided by Mark Sanford of Alaska Interior Transport and North Pole Gravel Products who had his commercial Titan II Coal Boiler tested.

Did you know that the scientific paper recommendations used as the basis for Proposition 2 was written in part by Mr. John Davies who is running for Borough Assembly Seat H? You can find the paper here. The title is Reducing PM2.5 Emissions from Residential Heating Sources in the Fairbanks North Star Borough: Emission Estimates, Policy Options, and Recommendations.

Here is a screen print:



According to the report (Table 4 p. 25) estimated numbers of Hydronic heater devices is 1500. I have personally contacted know dealers of coal and wood outdoor boilers and the actual number of known hydronic heaters sold in this borough is 389. About 6 in the past 3 years from Ken Hansen the WoodDoctor. No more than 200 units from Don Trometter of North Pole Pipe and Supply (a Central Boiler Dealer) since 2004. Mr. Kelsch, a former dealer for Alaska Warm Wood in 2008 sold 12 combined coal and wood boilers, 1 to someone in Delta Junction. Robert Dibble of Arctic Spas and EcoWater Systems (no longer sells hydronic heaters) has sold 125 combined wood and coal boilers since 2008. Ron Muir and Mark Sanford have sold 46 coal boilers since 2008, they are part of North Pole Gravel. Granted there is potential for wood/coal boilers to have been purchased outside the limits of dealers in the area and outside the quoted business operation years so lets add 10% to the numbers. That gives us a potential of 428 actual outdoor heaters in the non-attainment area, still less than 1/3 the estimated number used by the white paper.

What does all this mean? The actual number of Hydronic Heaters is much less then what the white paper research is based on - which is the template for Prop. 2. So the real impact of removal of banned heating burners and fuels will not be enough because there were not that many to begin with. It means that no matter what is implemented with this proposition we are destined to fail reaching the EPA goals. None of this takes into account the particulates we get from China in the spring, how will we stop that?

So, here is a prediction if this passes. The EPA PM 2.5 goal will not be attained in the non-attainment area by the due date of April 2014. There will be a push within that time frame to do more to meet the requirement. This push will bite into home owners’ indoor fireplaces and woodstoves. Although Healthy Air Now proponents claim this proposition will not affect woodstove owners many woodstove owners will face fines regardless of proper burning technique. Opacity limits of smoke plumes will be lowered from 30% to 20% or less. More outright bans will be instituted; this could be bans of ever increasing home heating devices and/or fuel types, burn days (think super cold days), even particular areas of the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole (think School zones). In fact, I predict that all of this could happen even if Prop. 2 doesn’t pass!

The long term effects of FNSB trying to attain the ever changing, unattainable, and arbitrary requirements of an entity of the Federal Government manned by appointees will crush us. We need to tell them to go fly a kite! We do, can and will do our best to educate and voluntarily adapt to keep our air as clean as we can reasonably do so.

This is not about PM 2.5; it’s about filling the Borough coffers with revenue. This is not about healthy air now; it is about producing greater reliance on expensive fuels and government. This is not about safe breathing, this is about warm homes. This is not about EPA; it’s about our liberty to choose self-reliance.

No on Prop. 2

Update 10/4/11 Just found an article for No on 2 view. I found it because it had a link to this site. I didn't read it all, just browsed it; it appears to be all Q & A format. So here is the article: Where's The Smoke?

More Info. on Proposition 2: Alaska Pride

Another blogger down in Anchorage has done a post on this issue check it out:

http://alaskapride.blogspot.com/2011/09/more-facts-and-stats-about-2011.html

Proposition 2: PM 2.5 Ban Expansion and Fee Increase

I have gathered a lot of information on this proposition. Although I provided some of this information on the Proposition page I will include it here again for your convenience.

FNSB Proposition 2 - Healthy Air Protection Act (by Citizen's Initiative Certified July 13, 2011) (Ordinance Submitted by Petition)

A YES vote on Proposition 2 will result in the following:

• Removing 4 of 7 approved "Solid Fuel Burning Appliance". Removed: Coal stoves, wood-fired hydronic heaters (outdoor wood boiler), coal-fired hydronic heater, and coal-fired furnaces.



• Ban coal use (including Healy Clean Coal) for homeowners, churches, etc. Exemptions for: Power Plants* (which burn coal).



• Establish that a smoke plume not cross property lines at values of "35 micrograms per cubic meter or greater than the surrounding neighborhood background PM 2.5 levels".



• Establish that a smoke plume be no greater than 30% opacity for more than 15 minutes in any hour.



• Provide for up to 3 "code enforcement officers".



• Raise current offense fees: Misuse 1st offence with 1 warning from $30 to $100 (minimum change ) - Misuse during Air Quality Zone 2nd offence (new) from a offence with 3-day warning period of $100/day to No warning and $400 fine.



• Greater government control over your natural given (some say God given) right to self-sufficiency.



• All above listed results are assured.



• Maybe, speculative at best, enough of a reduction of PM 2.5 particles during "Air Quality Alert" Days (think -40 with inversions which cause "smog" to stay low to the ground) to satisfy the EPA.

Did you know there is a Coal Boiler in the borough that burns at greater efficiency (btu)then oil and much lower PM 2.5 output then the Healthy Air Now group will acknowledge? More in another post.

*GVEA 2 facilities, Military plants, UAF facility, Aurora, Flint Hills (I'm not sure if all burn coal but I know most do)

Assembly Seat H: John Davies and other Candidates

Still waiting for a response from Mr. Davies but he does have a website and here is a link to his "Why I Am Running" letter. It's very informative as to his stance on many issues.

I have yet to interview School Board Candidates but am getting closer to that.

I have spoken with Mr. Lawrence, Mr. Dukes, and Mr. Blanchard and am expecting email answers from them soon.

Mr. Davies, Mr. Aaron Bennett and Mr. Palembas are in my to call cue.

Assembly Seat D: Van Lawrence Radio Interview

On 9/21/2011 I listened to Problem Corner on 660am. On this program Steve Floyde interviewed Mr. Lawrence and callers were able to ask questions as well. Here are my notes from the interview:

Q:Mr. Floyde asked about a solution for our energy problem.
A:Mr. Lawrence responded that the near term solution is trucking natural gas.

Q:Mr. Floyde asked, "Is it the governments job to make sure people have heat in their home?
A:The infrastructure is too expensive for a local business to take on. The Borough government can take a vital role as far as infrastructure goes. I don't know of any other source to help with high priced oil.

Q: caller: Frank Turney: Do you agree with Jury Nullification?
A: No, this is a country of laws. There is an objective standard as to what that law is.

Q: caller: Randy: Is concealed carry okay?
A: Yes, it's okay.

Q: caller: Gary: Where do your rights come from?
A: Mostly from the Constitution of the United States. It is a law interpreted by courts and not by jury. Jury Nullification creates uncertainty and unpredictability.

Assembly Seat E: Guy Sattley

I interviewed Mr. Sattley via phone on 9/23/2011. Although I emailed questions he preferred the phone method of answering questions over writing.

Please explain your thoughts on Jury Nullification.

No to jury nullification.

What is your stance on the Propositions?

Prop. 1 - Yes
Prop. 2 - No
Prop. 3 - Yes

Many politicians (whether they run for Senate or School Board) always claim their best for the job due to “experience”, is experience all its cut out to be or are there other attributes we should be looking for?

Experience helps. It's especially important for assembly members to be property owners and have experience in paying property taxes. This provides a vested interest in the budgeting process as property taxes are a large portion of the borough budget funding. Mr. Sattley also feels it's goo for "young blood" to get involved with the political process (like Natalie Howard who is 35).

Mr. Sattley is the one who informed me that there will be no Voter Guide Supplements mailed out this year. He expressed disappointment in that.

Assembly Seat D: Michael Dukes Round 2 Q & A

These questions were answered by phone interview on 9/23/2011

Please explain your thoughts on Jury Nullification.

Mr. Dukes believes there is a place for it. The Founding Fathers were concerned with the Judiciary having too much power and saw Jury Nullification as a way for the citizens to check that power.

Can a tax rate be so high that it’s not acceptable?

Yes, a tax rate can be too high. The FNSB is 2nd or 3rd highest property tax rate in the State. A balance between services offered by the Borough and property tax rates is necessary.

Please explain your thoughts on affirmative action.

The concept is a great idea but in practice it creates inequality. It's a bad deal. Jobs should be based on ability for the job.

What is school for? What is education for? Are they the same?

School is something with a limited timeline. It should be used to instill a love of learning. Education is continual and forever. They are two interlocking halves of the same hole.

Proposition 2 Public Forum Part 2

For the Yes on Proposition 2 public forum I was able to turn in two written questions.

1) Please explain the observer certified EPA Reference Method 9. (This is how certified observers will visually look at smoke plumes to determine opacity, which according to this propostion the limit is 30%).

A: Observers will recieve two 1/2 day trainings in which they have to certify every six months. They must identify opacity correctly with in 5%, if they miss 2 they fail. They will be trained in Night/Day, Black/White smoke, and how to distinguish between Smoke/Steam.

Now, here is an instance where I would have like the opportunity to clarify the answer via follow up questioning as in my research one really cannot acurately determine opacity without the sun.

2) When do air quality alerts most often occur? (An air quality alert is declared when the PM concentration reaches the onset level and is expected to remain at that level for 12 hrs)

A: Alerts most often happen when its cold outside, when people are home more and woodburning is used most. Also, there are daily peaks at 9am and 10pm.

During the panel I had new questions that I was unable to submit but after they ended I spoke with one of the panel member, Cathy Cahill. The Q & A is as follows:

Q. Can an increase to “sick days” be attributed to other factors then just wood smoke?

A. The health effects are directly related to the Total PM 2.5 mass which is made up of automobiles, diesel, ammonium nitrate, sulfate, woodsmoke and unexplained particles. So, yes other factors could play into the “sick day” health effects.

Q. Why do the EPA guidelines matter anyway? Why should we care?

A. They are set to protect health, based on studies that began in the 90’s.

Q. Really, what is the EPA threat? Is it tied to money?

A. Yes it ties into money. Ms. Cahill has a presentation outlining the EPA threat here. (What's Smoking Now? Fairbanks Air Quality and PM2.5
Presented by Cathy Cahill)


You can find more information at: www.healthyairnow.org

Next I hope to focus more on the other side of the issue. I’m still working on gathering that information.

Proposition 2 Public Forum Part 1

I was able to attend the Yes on Proposition 2 public meeting at the library. There were a lot of fliers and handouts, a few slide show presentations, and a Q & A panel. For the Q & A portion pieces of paper and pens were distributed to the audience to write their questions. A moderator then read the questions for panel members to answer. While I understand the way the Q & A was handled to be an effort to prevent anticipated outbursts, it also prevented questioners from follow up to clarify understanding of the answers.

The News Miner article can be found here.

According to the article the organizers of the meeting are open to a debate. I think this would be more useful to the public. “Panel organizer Joan Franz said they avoided making the event into a debate because they hoped to educate people about the proposition, but didn’t rule out the possibility of a future debate.“

This is a heated issue as reflected by the comments to the News Miner article. Some comments are as follows:

« Lance_Roberts wrote on Tuesday, Sep 20 at 12:36 AM »
The EPA tested their coal boiler and was blown away with how clean it emitted. They wouldn't give them the paperwork, instead sending it to the Mayor, who is holding the results off until after the election.

Navin wrote on Tuesday, Sep 20 at 07:09 AM »
I, also attended the gathering. Yes, it could have been educational, but the panel didn't seem to know the answers to the screened questions. Oh, there was one, it was a planted question for the Yes vote, "How can I help?". Seemed like a waste of an hour and a half.

It just feels like the Borough Mayor is trying to add another layer of government to the already bloated bureacracy. How much is going to cost us tax payers for the sneaky smoke sniffers? They aren't telling us that are they?

If you have a concern about a blatant violator, call the State DEC. They have the POWER to regulate and control the wood and coal burners in this Valley, let them do their job. The borough has no police powers and they are trying to attain some by passing the Prop 2. I say NO to the Sneaky Smoke Sniffers.

I was very impressed with Ron Muir of North Pole Gravel Products. He brought his flatbed truck loaded with a Titan 2 coal-fired stoker boiler. He said it was producing 40,000 BTU's, enough to heat the Noel Wien library. There was no smoke that I could see coming from the stack.

I guess it all boils down to surviving the winter the warmest and cheapest way we can. The cost of heating fuel determines everything. Flint Hill could lower their prices and save us all, but they won't. Why, it's called GREED. Why, again, it's called GREED. Anchorage fairs better than we do and they get fuel from North Pole as well.

Hey, let's call our representatives and see if they can help us out. Wait, then again, it's election time and they remember they have to have an issue for us to believe in, so we can send them back to Juneau. I don't think they really care that much or they are not that effective down in Juneau. Which is it? Can't help us at home and can't help us in Juneau.

I am voting NO to the Sneaky Smoke Sniffers on Prop 2.

FBX79 wrote on Tuesday, Sep 20 at 07:22 AM »
I too was at this session. I have a different impression than what the commentors below have. The pannel included respected experts in different fields. The information given was excellent. It is clear from each perspective our PM 2.5 pollution is creating a huge problem for our health and the health of our children. And it is clear that it is the wood boilers and coal stoves that are creating most of the problem. Those maps showing the PM2.5 levels show this clearly.

The panel took questions from anyone in the audience. There were clearly questions from both sides of the issue. Here are some of those questions that I heard, along with a summary of the answer that was given:

Q. Aren't most of the PM2.5s sulfate based, from cars, trucks, fuel oil? A. No, the data clearly shows that 60 to 80% is from burning wood.

Q. Why won't EPA give a variance for Fairbanks? A. There are other communities in the lower 48 that have similar geography. EPA didn't give them variances. EPA does give us a variance for summer wildfire smoke, but they won't for winter smoke since it is man caused.

Q. We have not lost one single military unit. Who keeps saying we have? A. We have lost the A10 and the F14 units. Huge cuts to the Department of Defense are coming. The military is responsible for 38% of the employment in our community. Why should we risk losing this component of our economy? And why should we keep hurting our children, our hope for the future?

Q. The North Pole monitor showed violations of EPA standard 11 times in 2009 (6 from wildfires), 8 in 2010, and only 4 this year? How is this getting worse? A. These figures are not correct. The number of exceedances was many times higher than this. (I need to correct the answer FBX79 gave to this question as the individual who answered the question stated that the North Pole filter only takes samples every 3 days so we could actually triple the numbers)

There were more questions from both sides, these are just the few I took notes on.

After the session I went out and looked at the coal stove. They guy was right, it wasn't putting out much smoke at the time. But what about all the coal stoves in our community that do belch smoke? And what about the lead, mercury, and other heavy metals that is found in the Healy coal? Google "USGS Report DDS-77." According to USGS, Healy coal has high concentrations of lead and selenium, and also has mercury and beryllium. The recent coal ash study found mercury levels inthe coal ash 70 times higher than background. We certainly don't want lead and mercury in the are we breathe.

We absolutely need a cleaner, cheaper fuel like natural gas. But we also need healthy air to breathe, and we need it now. Voting yes will get us healthy air.

OneDad wrote on Tuesday, Sep 20 at 07:24 AM »
I also attended.

First off, no questions were screened. They were simply collected in a stack and passed to the moderator and read in order (anyone actually at the meeting could see this, as the comments were visible in the room the entire time). One person with the mic reading questions is much faster, and prevents the yelling and drama that can build with emotional discussions like this one. That they did not eliminate questions is shown by some of the questions that were asked, such as "Unenforceable. How will the borough enforce this ordinance?"

Well, the Borough Mayor, Luke Hopkins happened to be there, and answered "The borough is required to use current staff for enforcement, to have three people do the job, and are required to begin enforcement on all fines at the same time. The Mayor at the time will decide on the scheduled for enforcement."

So, no, the questions were not screened.

and No, the Borough is not "just looking for a way to add another layer of government that the taxpayers will have to pay for. All they want to do is to increase the budget, add more employees, more salary and health insurance, more bloated expenses" They *can't* according to current law.

and anyway, this is a Citizen's Initiative! The Borough had nothing to do with it.

The DEC has been completely ineffective at stopping polluters so far, what makes you think they will suddenly become efficient pollution fighters?

Prop 2 will help our community take care of its own problems. Stand on your own two feet and vote yes on Prop 2.

More from the forum in my next post.

Repost: Bonding 101

Original post: Friday, October 22, 2010

Bonding Propositions and Ballot Measure Up Next but first...
Despite having been an excellent student in public school I did not learn much. I knew how to test well but what I studied did not stick! I'm sure most of us can relate to that. Now I am on a learning adventure and boy is it fun!

Let me ask you something.... do you know what a bond is? Do you understand the different types of bonds? Who sells them, who buys them? If you wanted to, how would you buy one? What is the rate of return on one?

In researching for this upcoming election these are some of the questions I have had and am currently (in my mid 30's) learning about. I have been voting since 18 and am just now trying to be an informed voter instead of a blind approver.

When "we the people" vote yes on a bonding proposition we are authorizing an investment proposal without knowing all the detail's of it. And from what I have learned I'm not sure I want to approve an investment proposal with out that information.

Here's what I've learned so far:

"A general obligation bond is a common type of municipal bond in the United States that is secured by a state or local government's pledge to use legally available resources, including tax revenues, to repay bond holders.

Most general obligation pledges at the local government level include a pledge to levy a property tax to meet debt service requirements, in which case holders of general obligation bonds have a right to compel the borrowing government to levy that tax to satisfy the local government's obligation."

Emphasis added, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_obligation_bond

In case you don't know, levy is defined as 1. impose tax: to use government authority to impose or collect a tax.

To me, and if my understanding is wrong please comment, the bond propositions are essentially "we the people" approving our government to sell pieces of paper (bonds) to investors who will then be paid back over an undisclosed period of time and at an undisclosed rate of interest. What money source will be used to pay back the investors? Who will the investors be? Why would they invest? If the money source is depleted before investors are fully paid the obligation owed them will additional taxes of the people be levied?

Just some food for thought....

Update 10/23/10 Just spoke with Rep. Tammy Wilson. Who I have always found to be quick to return my calls and willing to answer my questions. Some clarification and understanding on the bonding issues.

• The State of Alaska is guaranteeing the funds (which particular State funds used for the guarantee she was not certain on).



• She believes the bonds (essentially loans) are on a 30 year pay back plan.



• The terms of interest, etc. on the bonds is not delineated now; it is determined at the time when the bonds go out. Just like with a mortgage or car loan.

Proposition 2: A letter from Tammy Wilson

Dear Neighbor,

On the October 4 ballot there is a measure worthy of your attention. Proposition #2 is an attempt to regulate heating appliances in the Borough.

If Prop #2 passes:

1. The Borough is MANDATED to shut-down boilers and fine for woodstove use.

2. The Borough can hire wood “police” to check your cordwood moisture and

your furnace.

3. Your EPA-certified furnace may NOT be permitted inside the Borough because

the Borough will enforce a stricter emission standard than the federal

government.

4. A new layer of government will be created for enforcement.



The supporters of Proposition 2 will be holding a public meeting this Monday, September 19, at the Noel Wien Library on Cowles from 7 to 8:30 pm.

Proposition 2 is one of the most important votes our community will make this year. Sharing our knowledge openly with one another about the importance of these heating devices will assure we make the best decision in October. I want to make sure you are aware that a plan has already been implemented that addresses our air through a $3 million state grant for a wood/coal change out program, forestry has opened more wood cutting areas, borough has launched an educational program and the state has begun legal action against our true polluters. Many residents have already taken advantage of these programs and another 700 have their applications in the hopper.

Whether you agree or disagree with Prop 2, please consider attending this meeting to learn and make your position known.
If you have any questions, please feel free to call me at 590-7602.


Sincerely,

Tammie

Assembly Seat E: John Kohler, Jr. Round 2 Q & A

Please explain your thoughts on Jury Nullification.

Its a great way to end up in US supreme court. The mear mention of 800-tel-jury during jury questioning will free your calendar quickly from jury duty. They have not called me back for jury duty in YEARS.

Can a tax rate be so high that it’s not acceptable?
yes of course. We have a nice group of folks at the ITA that works hard to make sure our local mil rate remains stable and attractive. It would be nice to see a flat tax federally.

Please explain your thoughts on affirmative action.

I have been a victim of affirmative action. Reverse descrimination sucks just as bad as non-codified descrimination. I rose above, and made my own work happen. Most folks can, it's just fun to whine.

What is school for? What is education for? Are they the same?
Schools should teach you how to learn and give you a baseline level of knowledge. Education is lifelong, and is driven by the learning skills and love of learning you get in schools or at home. If you were to draw a venn diagram , the two terms would largely overlap, but not completely.

Thank you for running for a seat in this election. Also, thank you to those candidates who responded to my first round of questions. I look forward to reading everyone’s thoughts and posting the results on my blog.
You are welcome. October 4th can't come soon enough for me. I hope you do your best to get out the vote.

Regards,
John kohler jr