Proposition 2: Real Numbers and a Prediction

Okay, this should be my final post on the Proposition 2: PM2.5 issue. Post before last I mentioned a coal boiler. This boiler is running with more heat output and less fine particles per million BTU of heat then the wood pellet stoves that are still "approved" according to Prop. 2. Here is the test result:

Note the heat output of 273,041.69 BTU’s/hr with Average Emission of 0.035 lb/MMBtu.

Now compare this number to several of the EPA approved wood pellet stoves link here. The top two listings are:

1) Northwest Manufacturing, Inc. Flex-Fuel 30 KW indoor/outdoor Heat Output 110,167 BTU/hr and Average Emission Level 0.04 lbs/million BTU output

2) Central Boiler Maxim M250 Heat Output 212,453 BTU/hr and Average Emission Level 0.06 lbs/million BTU output

The Titan II has better heat output with lower emissions then the EPA list of "Cleaner Hydronic Heaters" using wood pellets. If meeting EPA PM 2.5 requirements really is part of the goal of Prop. 2 why are less efficent wood pellet stoves still approved under this proposition yet coal burners for homes are not. Why are the various coal burning commercial industries accetable and how did the research delineate the difference of PM 2.5 from these commercial sources from individual home devices? Update 9/30/11 Mr. Muir sent a link to video footage of the Titan II.

Information above provided by Mark Sanford of Alaska Interior Transport and North Pole Gravel Products who had his commercial Titan II Coal Boiler tested.

Did you know that the scientific paper recommendations used as the basis for Proposition 2 was written in part by Mr. John Davies who is running for Borough Assembly Seat H? You can find the paper here. The title is Reducing PM2.5 Emissions from Residential Heating Sources in the Fairbanks North Star Borough: Emission Estimates, Policy Options, and Recommendations.

Here is a screen print:



According to the report (Table 4 p. 25) estimated numbers of Hydronic heater devices is 1500. I have personally contacted know dealers of coal and wood outdoor boilers and the actual number of known hydronic heaters sold in this borough is 389. About 6 in the past 3 years from Ken Hansen the WoodDoctor. No more than 200 units from Don Trometter of North Pole Pipe and Supply (a Central Boiler Dealer) since 2004. Mr. Kelsch, a former dealer for Alaska Warm Wood in 2008 sold 12 combined coal and wood boilers, 1 to someone in Delta Junction. Robert Dibble of Arctic Spas and EcoWater Systems (no longer sells hydronic heaters) has sold 125 combined wood and coal boilers since 2008. Ron Muir and Mark Sanford have sold 46 coal boilers since 2008, they are part of North Pole Gravel. Granted there is potential for wood/coal boilers to have been purchased outside the limits of dealers in the area and outside the quoted business operation years so lets add 10% to the numbers. That gives us a potential of 428 actual outdoor heaters in the non-attainment area, still less than 1/3 the estimated number used by the white paper.

What does all this mean? The actual number of Hydronic Heaters is much less then what the white paper research is based on - which is the template for Prop. 2. So the real impact of removal of banned heating burners and fuels will not be enough because there were not that many to begin with. It means that no matter what is implemented with this proposition we are destined to fail reaching the EPA goals. None of this takes into account the particulates we get from China in the spring, how will we stop that?

So, here is a prediction if this passes. The EPA PM 2.5 goal will not be attained in the non-attainment area by the due date of April 2014. There will be a push within that time frame to do more to meet the requirement. This push will bite into home owners’ indoor fireplaces and woodstoves. Although Healthy Air Now proponents claim this proposition will not affect woodstove owners many woodstove owners will face fines regardless of proper burning technique. Opacity limits of smoke plumes will be lowered from 30% to 20% or less. More outright bans will be instituted; this could be bans of ever increasing home heating devices and/or fuel types, burn days (think super cold days), even particular areas of the cities of Fairbanks and North Pole (think School zones). In fact, I predict that all of this could happen even if Prop. 2 doesn’t pass!

The long term effects of FNSB trying to attain the ever changing, unattainable, and arbitrary requirements of an entity of the Federal Government manned by appointees will crush us. We need to tell them to go fly a kite! We do, can and will do our best to educate and voluntarily adapt to keep our air as clean as we can reasonably do so.

This is not about PM 2.5; it’s about filling the Borough coffers with revenue. This is not about healthy air now; it is about producing greater reliance on expensive fuels and government. This is not about safe breathing, this is about warm homes. This is not about EPA; it’s about our liberty to choose self-reliance.

No on Prop. 2

Update 10/4/11 Just found an article for No on 2 view. I found it because it had a link to this site. I didn't read it all, just browsed it; it appears to be all Q & A format. So here is the article: Where's The Smoke?